2026 · Study · English

Radicalisation as deviant social development: Evidence from the 2024 Communities That Care Youth Survey in Lower Saxony

Lutterbach, S., & Beelmann, A.

Lutterbach, S., & Beelmann, A. (2026). Radicalisation as deviant social development: Evidence from the 2024 Communities That Care Youth Survey in Lower Saxony. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 90, 102182. doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2026.102182

Summary

Cross-sectional study using the 2024 Communities That Care Youth Survey in Lower Saxony, Germany, to test the social-developmental model of radicalisation. The sample comprised 5,721 adolescents and young adults aged 13–24 (mean 15.6). Structural equation models estimated the unique contribution of four proximal radicalisation processes – antisocial attitudes and behaviour, prejudice, identity problems, and political or religious ideology – to two indicators of extremism: extreme political attitudes and affinity for political violence. All four processes were significant predictors of both indicators, with political/religious ideology the strongest across models. Multi-group analyses by gender, age and migration background revealed systematic differences in the predictive pathways, which the authors read as evidence that developmental stage and social background shape how radicalisation unfolds. Because the data are a single cross-section, causal claims are not possible. For European CTC practice the study shows the routine youth survey, run with the Lower Saxony State Prevention Council, informing extremism prevention alongside its usual purposes.