2012 · Study · English

Predictive Validity of Established Cut Points for Risk and Protective Factor Scales from the Communities That Care Youth Survey

Briney, J. S., Brown, E. C., Hawkins, J. D., & Arthur, M. W.

Briney, J. S., Brown, E. C., Hawkins, J. D., & Arthur, M. W. (2012). Predictive Validity of Established Cut Points for Risk and Protective Factor Scales from the Communities That Care Youth Survey. The Journal of Primary Prevention, 33(5-6), 249–258. doi.org/10.1007/s10935-012-0280-1

Summary

Validation study in the Journal of Primary Prevention of the cut-points that turn CTC Youth Survey scales into the ‘high risk’ and ‘low protection’ flags coalitions use when prioritising. An earlier cross-sectional study had set these thresholds; here the authors use longitudinal data to test whether a young person classified above a risk cut-point or below a protection cut-point is more likely to report substance use and delinquent behaviour one year later. The findings support the predictive validity of the cut-points for the risk and protective factor scales and hence their use in guiding prevention decisions. The paper opens with a reminder of why this matters: an earlier generation of community coalitions had shown little effect, and the newer generation that works – CTC among them – differs in basing its decisions on local risk and protection data and on evidence-based programmes. Relevant for European adaptations, where cut-points calibrated on US samples may need re-examination.