2000 · Report · English
Predictors of Youth Violence
Hawkins, J. D., Herrenkohl, T., Farrington, D.P., Brewer, D., Catalano, R.F., Harachi, T.W. Cother, L.
Hawkins, J. D., Herrenkohl, T., Farrington, D.P., Brewer, D., Catalano, R.F., Harachi, T.W. Cother, L. (2000). Predictors of Youth Violence. ojp.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/179065.pdf
Summary
US OJJDP Juvenile Justice Bulletin summarising what long-term studies say predicts adolescent violence. It rests on a meta-analysis of 66 longitudinal studies drawn from Lipsey and Derzon’s (1998) bibliography, supplemented by OJJDP Study Group reports and Seattle Social Development Project analyses; associations are expressed as weighted mean correlations and, where available, odds ratios. Predictors are set out in five domains: individual (hyperactivity, aggressiveness, early violence, antisocial beliefs), family (parental criminality, maltreatment, poor family management, conflict), school (academic failure, low commitment, truancy, dropout), peer (delinquent siblings and peers, gang membership) and community (poverty, disorganisation, availability of drugs and firearms, exposure to violence). Predictor strength shifts with age – early offending and substance use rank highest at ages 6–11, weak social ties and antisocial peers at 12–14 – and risk accumulates: in the Cambridge Study, 3% of boys with no risk factors were later convicted of violence against 31% with four. The evidence base behind the risk-factor lists CTC communities work from.